SP.3.7.a

Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.

a.  Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected.

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Formative Assessments
Formative Assessments
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CPALMS: Students are asked to determine the probability of a chance event and explain possible causes for the difference between the probability and observed frequencies.

Errand Runner

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CPALMS: Students are given a scenario and asked to determine the probability of two different events.

Technical Difficulties

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CPALMS: Students are asked to determine probabilities based on observed outcomes and to determine if the outcomes appear to be equally likely.

Marble Probability

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CPALMS: Students are asked to determine probabilities based on observed outcomes and to determine if the outcomes appear to be equally likely.

Number Cube

Virtual/Hands-on Manipulatives
Virtual/Hands-on Manipulatives
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CPALMS: The student is able to simulate placing marbles into a bag and finding the probability of pulling out certain combinations of marbles. This allows exploration of probabilities of multiple events as well as probability with and without replacement.

Interactive Marbles

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CPALMS: Students adjust how many sections there are on a fair spinner then run simulated trials as a way to develop concepts of probability. They can explore the topics of experimental and theoretical probability by seeing them displayed side by side.

Spinner

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CPALMS: Through a game format, the student will explore the probability that a ball will land on each of the numbers and discover that more accurate results come from repeated testing.

Plinko Probability

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CPALMS: This virtual manipulative can be used demonstrate random probability and to teach about chance and random choices. Use this free, fully customizable, online spinner to create probability scenarios involving numerous choices.

Spinners

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CPALMS: Students explore probability topics by modeling coin tossing, free throwing shooting, and manufacturing defects with this virtual manipulative.

Probability Models

Assessment Questions
Assessment Questions
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Videos of Expert Instruction
Videos of Expert Instruction
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This 8-minute video provides an introduction to the concept of probability through the example of flipping a coin and rolling a die.
Probability Explained
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Should I keep my choice or switch? Learn more about the origins and probability behind the Monty Hall door picking dilemma and how Game Theory and strategy effect the probability.
Let’s Make a Math Deal
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What was the first question that started probability theory?
History of Probability and the Problem of Points
Hook/Performance Tasks
Hook/Performance Tasks
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Illustrative Mathematics: This task uses student generated data to assess standard 7.SP.7. It could also be extended to address Standard 7.SP.1 by adding a small or whole class discussion of whether the class could be considered as a representative sample of all students at your school.

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